3. Modelling transport flows

Confindustria Piemonte // Comitato Transpadana

The purpose of activity N°3 is to create an accessibility model for simulating intermodal service opportunities, more particularly those offered by future or existing cross-border rail links, and which can then be proposed to the different operators. The model is developed on the basis of the present reciprocal trade situation and then be progressively adapted to the use of the historic railway lines and finally to the possible characteristics of the future link.
In this case, the expression "accessibility model" has been used for defining a specific typology of attribution model, significantly more complex than the model generally used. This model will be specifically finalized for assessing traffic that can be "captured" under precise conditions by the rail corridor covered by the study.

Within the InterAlpes project, modeling and simulation of multimodal transport system between Italy and France have represented a critical step, which involved a detailed analysis of supply and demand of transport, in addition to the reconstruction of their mechanisms of mutual interaction, to assess the functioning of the system and set up a useful starting point for the subsequent scenario simulations.
The preliminary reconstruction of the demand for transport of goods in the Italian-French Alpes, that is, the state of the traffic flows on the network, through the identification of the basic matrix of origin/destination: market analysis and historical data available allowed, in fact, to reproduce the functioning of the entire system and then calibrate the model of transport demand prior to identification of alternative scenarios.
In the perspective of a massive modal shift, consistent with the objective of transferring to the railways, by 2030, 30% of the goods currently moved by road, have been included in this assessment phase all the elements of a strategic nature that may allow, also from the point of view of territorial marketing, intermodal services. The identification of the base matrix has allowed to frame the current situation for the transport of goods by road and the rail.

In the case of road, the stage of preliminary identification of the transport relations made it possible to obtain a wide range of heterogeneous information, even to the level of detail: at this stage, despite being traced to a unique pattern represented by the zoning choice, they are kept distinct to be able to assign each a specific and appropriate "level of confidence" in the estimation process of the matrix, allowing you to reach the final version through extensive use of traffic flows encountered in the network. To do this, are considered the traffic flows on a specific border points: Basel, Mont Blanc, Fréjus, Montgenevre, La Turbie (Ventimiglia).

In the case of rail, the complete and updated description of the framework of relations between areas of origin and destination is obtained by comparing with the flows on the network: the main issues appear to be linked to the complexity of the reference area and the difficulties of access to the network.

The implementation of the accessibility model has highlighted a system divided into different basins poorly integrated across borders. In fact, despite the Italian-French border is affected by long-distance lines of international importance for the transport of goods, the companies have a relatively limited role for mobility (especially systematic) of the goods: the results still show significant problems to be solved, especially in correspondence of the major conurbations.

InterAlpes has completed the analysis of the current situation with the identification of the most desirable future scenarios for the transport of goods in the Alps, located temporally 2015 and 2030, that is, in the short and medium term. The two scenarios, as outlined, are potential situations where, as a result of future changes in both the demand component and in that the supply, determines a new equilibrium condition of the transport system in the years considered.